The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.
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The dollar fell 2.3% last week to below the psychologically-significant 100 level as US inflation numbers continue to go down nicely. Fed fund futures see a 92% chance of a rate hike on July 26, so the market won’t be surprised when that happens. More importantly is September and beyond. Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller (considered the 2nd most hawkish voting member) said last week: “In September if inflation bounces back, we should hike. But if the data looks like we’re making progress - we’ll get 2 more CPI reports - if they look like the last 2, the data would suggest maybe stopping.” Although the S&P 500 Index's 17.5% rise this year may appear excessive, in past years with such strong year-to-date moves, the index rose through the remainder of the year three-quarters of the time. Importantly, the bull market that had been confined to large technology stocks is broadening to other sectors, including cyclical ones. Their move contradicts the still widely-held believe that a sharp economic slowdown or recession is on the horizon.
This episode is brought to you by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
