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One: Toby Ord on existential risks
Effective Altruism: Ten Global Problems – 80000 Hours
Is Existential Risk Going Down in the Near Future?
If we're pessimistic, think the risk won't go down in the near future, then that's not a world where we can save ourselves very well anyway. We have these, like, medium, strong reasons to reduce ica central andth the third one ends up dominating the whole equation. This is closely related to a martin weiman's approach to discounting. When yo're uncertain about the discount ratus in your example, you think that there's like, maybe, in some sense, that the future is being discounted in terms of probability. The expected value mostly comes from a that third option.
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