Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and author of macro newsletter The Boock Report, joins Julia on episode 51 for a wide-ranging conversation on macroeconomics.
In this episode, Boockvar makes a case that investors need to get accustomed to a slower rate of growth in this new interest rate environment where rates will stay higher for longer. As Boockvar puts it, it’s a “death by a thousand cuts” economy.
The conversation touched on the housing market, the Federal Reserve, earnings, layoffs, China’s reopening, inflation, and much more.
0:00 Intro
0:31 Macro view
1:12 Still in a bear market
2:31 Debt coming due
5:56 A death by a thousand cuts
8:06 A slower rate of growth
9:40 Housing market
10:35 To what extent do home prices fall?
13:58 Economic outlook
15:00 Higher rates relative to inflation is a more healthy environment
17:00 The Fed’s reputation has been shattered
18:03 Powell doesn’t want to repeat the 1970s
19:00 Fed wants market to ‘sober up’
20:44 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number
25:00 Earnings picture are a headwind for stocks
27:40 White Collar recession
30:24 China’s reopening
31:40 Chinese consumer has been unleashed
34:45 Why oil will go well north of $100 this year
36:30 Playing the China reopening
37:40 U.S. big tech’s best of their stock days are over
40:30 Every investor focused on macro has to keep an eye on BOJ
44:00 How to think about inflation
49:00 Be aware of your investing/economic surroundings
50:08 Boockvar’s marrying macro and micro
53:11 Time horizon is the key to successful investing
