Are You Too Early or Too Late?

The best determinant of what's going to happen to morrow is where we stand in the cycle. If we're elevated, then a down turn becomes more likely. And if we're depressed, a rise is more likely than a decline, but only slightly. So that's why i say you can't but you can prepare, based on where we are in the cycle,. You can take action to reduce the exposures in your portfolio. Now, you're likely to do it too early. We've been early in our caution from time to time. But as long as you don't do anything extreme, it's wise to try to be early."