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Ep. 255 - AI's Got Chat: The Rise of chatGPT

The Local Maximum with Max Sklar

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The Poisson Distribution for 100-Year Storms

In the initial case, where we have two 30 minute buckets and we say, can either happen or not happen. Right, 50-50. We're saying that our possible outcomes are, it doesn't happen at all. It happens one, two, three, or four times within the hour. Or zero. There's also the zero case. So by sub-dividing it, we're actually increasing the range of possible occurrences. Is that? Yes. But we're keeping constant the number of the average. And so if you take that limit, like calculus style, then you get that Poisson formula which is a good way to think about it 100-year storms.

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