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A Failure, but Not of Prediction

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Coronavirus Pandemic?

Nate Silver said there was a 29% chance Trump would win. Most people interpreted that as Trump probably won't win and got shocked when he did. What was the percent attached to your coronavirus probably won't be a disaster prediction? Was it also 29%, 20%, 10%? Are you sure you want to go lower than 10%. Wuhan was already under total lockdown. They didn't even have space to bury all the bodies. And you're saying that there was less than 10% odds that it would be a problem anywhere else. I hear people say there's a 12 to 15% chance that future civilizations will resurrect your frozen brain. Surely the risk of coronav

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