The Effect of Pay Later on Retail Card Applications

A 2022 report from the CFPB titled Buy Now, Pay Later: Market trends and consumer impacts noted that from 2019 to 2021, the dollar volume of BNPL originations through five lenders surveyed grew by 1,092 percent, from $2 billion to $24.2 billion. BNPL adoption continues, not just in the US but globally, making it one of the most watched payment methods in the world. 

BNPL’s rapid ascent has raised questions about its use: Who is choosing to use BNPL? Is it helpful or harmful to consumers’ credit and overall financial well-being? Does it improve financial inclusion? Is it displacing other forms of payment at checkout? A quick online search leads to mixed data points and inconsistent findings, often based on modest sample sizes and extrapolations.

To answer these questions, we sat down with Kristin Carlson, Global Products and Analytics Data Scientist, and Zach Tondre, Director of Credit Risk Market Planning at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, who conducted a longitudinal study to obtain insight into these and other questions.