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The Disconnect Between the US Economy and the Fed
Global PMIs are rolling over, but the reason they're declining a bit is because of capacity constraints. This has been the first occasion since 1964 when a US economy, perilously close to full employment, has embarked on tax cuts. I find that difficult to reconcile with commentary that continues to come from global corporations about order books and everything else. And my sense is subject to revision that we're looking at late cycle asset price valuations, but shockingly the US economy might be mid cycle.