The Emotional Rollercoaster of Investing

This is Fred's third appearance on Economics Matters -- the Podcast. I wanted to get Fred back on asap as part of my ongoing quest to keep people financially safe. Fred is the Founder and Managing Member of Lane Generational LLC, an independent registered investment advisor headquartered in Boston (www.lanegenerational.com). Lane Generational provides investment management services on a discretionary basis to individuals, families, trusts, foundations and institutions. Full disclosure. My wife and I are investors in Fred's fund. But I have no financial relationship of any kind with Fred. I'm not a financial advisor and am certainly not recommending any investments of any kind, including Fred's. This is an educational podcast. For investment advice, please consult with an investment professional. The market is down roughly 4 percent since President Trump took office on January 20th. But since then, it's experienced dramatic volatility with the "fear index" - the VIX -- rising, apart from COVID, to its highest value since the Great Recession. This week the Dow rose 1000 points in one day on the "good" news that rather than tariffing China at embargo-level rates, we've "paused" them at 30 percent. This means Mattel will be able to keep selling Barbie dolls, which are made in China, albeit at a far higher price. To be clear, a 30 percent tariff is astronomical. Even  Google's AI gets this right. Yes, a 30 percent tariff can be considered astronomical, especially when compared to average global tariff rates and historical tariffs. Thus, most Americans with children will now be able to afford, say, 15 Barbies rather than the usual 30. That means Mattel will lay off perhaps a quarter rather than all of its salesforce. In short, we're not out of the dark. We're out of the pitch black. The U.S. market is partially benefiting from the potential lack of competition. But who knows where it will go once investors wake up and realize that, from a tariff perspective, it's likely the Great Depression all over again. How should anyone invest in this climate? That's the key question I asked Fred who is one of the most informed and savvy investors around. Don't take it from me. Take it from CNBC and other major media outlets who routinely invite Fred to comment on markets, the economy, and policy. Here's a brief bio.  Fred has over 40 years of investment and corporate finance experience, as a portfolio manager, a private equity investor and an investment banker. Fred's clients have included Staples (where he was a founding investor); Advanced Micro Devices; Forest Laboratories; ULTA Beauty; Tractor Supply; Berlitz International; Rexnord; Fairchild Industries; Plantronics; and numerous others. Fred is also a highly experienced private equity investor, having invested in more than 80 private companies. Fred received his A.B, cum laude from Harvard College and his MBA with Distinction from Harvard Business School.Prior to founding Lane Generational in September 2020, Fred was Senior Vice President, Investments at Raymond James & Associates, Inc. from October 2014 to September 2020 and also served as Vice Chairman, Investment Banking from May 2009 to October 2014. Fred was Chairman, CEO and Founder of the investment banking firm Lane, Berry & Co. International, LLC (which was acquired by Raymond James in May 2009) from January 2002 through January 2013. Prior to that, Fred was a Managing Director and Principal of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corporation (DLJ). Fred joined DLJ in 1976 and was instrumental in the growth of DLJ's investment banking business. He also served as Co-Head of the Mergers and Acquisitions Department at DLJ and as Managing Director – Senior Advisor of Credit Suisse First Boston upon CSFB's acquisition of DLJ in 2000.