The Bayesian Conspiracy cover image

8 – Interview with Brian Dunning

The Bayesian Conspiracy

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The Probability of Climate Change

In all of these predictions that the IPCC reports make are probabilities. They're not, they're often mischaracterized saying, oh, the scientists say sea level is going to go up 30 feet in 20 years or whatever it is. That's not true. The reports don't work that way. Every possible outcome has a probability. And we do actually have a pretty good handle on how this works. I think discussing probability curves and stuff is just just singing to our teams. So we're very big on probability. We're here then are yours per cup. You know what? I just got an email today from, let me write myself a note. I live right by UC Irvine and

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