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What Do You Think About CPI Year Over Year?
This is a chart of the potential path for headline CPI year over year. Jerome Powell has come out many times and he said that we want to see the headline number year over year on a monthly basis, have a series of declines. The takeaway from this is that the likely base case based on this model, if it is correct, in fact, during the drop months from 2021, is that you're going to get higher prints through the end of the year.