Train Following Traders - Are Your Win Rates Too High?

While many are only hearing about prediction markets for the first time, for near a decade, anonymous trader Domer (@Domahhhh) has been at the frontier of profiting from outcomes of unknown future events.

Political and economic matters are Domer’s specialty, although he doesn’t shy away from the rather abstract events either—for example; trading on the outcome of Britney Spear’s conservatorship and the Suez Canal obstruction!

Now at a point where he’s netting PnL of several hundred thousand dollars a year (across multiple exchanges), much of Domer’s winnings are due to his ability to garner an information edge and rejection of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

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