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#562 Jason Manning - Suicide: The Social Causes of Self-Destruction

The Dissenter

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How to Predict Rare Outcomes?

Suicide is a rare outcome for individuals, definitely. And this leads to a problem with any theory of it. It's hard to predict rare outcomes. You always wind up over predicting them. Any theory of homicide, or of suicide, or terrist actions, you find the things that make it more likely far more than you find the actual behavior itself.

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