Virginia as a Political Bellwether

Chuck Todd breaks down why this year’s elections may be local—but their impact will be national. From Virginia’s bellwether governor’s race to key contests in New Jersey and New York City, these results will offer a preview of the political mood heading into the 2026 midterms. Chuck dives into Abigail Spanberger’s cautious campaign strategy, Winsome Earle-Sears’ grievance-fueled messaging, and why Virginia voters rarely reward extremes. Plus, a look at how third-party candidates could shake up the New Jersey race and why Zohran Mamdani’s performance in NYC will signal the direction of the progressive movement.

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of American political scions running in upcoming election and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:00 Chuck will be LIVE on Youtube & X on election night! 

05:30 The 2025 elections are local, but will have national impact 

06:15 Virginia is a fairly good bellwether state for national politics 

07:00 Virginia is purple but is not MAGA 

07:30 Party controlling White House almost always loses VA governor race 

08:45 Spanberger has run a very cautious campaign 

09:45 Winsome Earle-Sears has been throwing things at the wall 

10:45 Virginia voters don't reward grievance politics 

12:15 Virginia hasn't split ticket amongst big three races since 2005 

14:15 Spanberger has kept Jay Jones at arms length 

17:00 Virginia will give us preview of which way field is tilting for midterms 

17:30 2018 class of Democrats has produced some high profile candidates 

18:45 Mikie Sherill has run a more contested race than Spanberger 

19:45 Ciaterreli outperformed polls in 2021, could happen again 

21:45 Third party candidates could swing the NJ governor race 

22:00 Mamdani will win in NYC, it's a matter of whether he clears 50% 

24:00 Mamdani needs a big margin in order to have a mandate 

25:15 What the results will tell us about the 2026 midterm landscape

29:00 ToddCast Top 5 - Top 5 American Political Scions 

30:45 It's been a bad run lately for run for political scions 

31:30 #1 Maine governor race features 3 political scions 

33:30 #2 Georgia governor race features 2 political scions 

34:45 #3 Beau Bayh 36:00 #4 Jack Schlossberg 

37:45 #5 Chip Keating 

38:45 Honorable mention - Andrew White 

39:45 Ask Chuck 

40:00 What if we had public debates where only verified facts are allowed? 

43:30 Would state level Democratic parties create a separate platform from DNC 

47:00 How do you define "short term" and "long term" when describing politics? 

50:30 Will markets dip in Trump's second year like it does historically? 

56:15 Who are three modern political thinkers best suited to express our ideals?

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