#63 – Ben Garfinkel on AI Governance
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The Winner's Curse of Randomness
In a sense, mechanistically, almost by sheer chance, there'll be some risks that you end up overestimating just because you happen to have encountered a bunch of considerations which point in one direction. The others who sort of lock the way are in some sense inaccessible. So I think the winner's curse is yeah, it's a good analogy for it. And so to be clear, this is actually not a story about people being biased or anything. It's a story where basically there's going to be some level of randomness in terms of how concerning the bits of information you encounter are.
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