I think that, i think that it depends on the culture that you're sitting in, and how much the culture hasa a sort of confusing certainty and confidence. I honestly wish we were training this kind of thinking earlier to get people to understand probable thinking better. It's like wrap your arms around uncertainty. It's going to make you a better decision maker. If you really want to get back into being a good traveller, start by travelling with other travellers. Go find some people to be in a group with because you can help them watching theirs. And if you don't know where to go or what to do, create one; you'll have more fun there than anywhere else.
I have wanted to do this interview for a long time. On this episode, I am thrilled to have Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of the new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.
Annie has a very interesting background that makes her uniquely qualified to speak about high-level decision making. As an author, speaker, world-class poker player, and academic in the fields of psychology and cognitive theory, Annie understands the intersection of luck, skill, and making decisions in uncertain, chaotic environments better than most people on the planet.
This is a whirlwind of an episode, and we cover all kinds of fascinating topics, including:
- The strange circumstances that shifted Annie’s path from finishing a Ph.D. in linguistics to becoming a professional poker player
- What it was like to be a female poker player in a predominantly male sport (especially before poker had become socially acceptable)
- What drew Annie into such a high stakes, time-pressured environment and why she felt like poker was the perfect fit for her
- How her graduate work in psychology informed the way she approached the game of poker — and helped her rack up wins
- How she finds the signal in a very noisy stream of feedback
- The big mistakes Annie noticed other players making that were stalling their progress in the game but allowed her to make giant leaps forward
- The role that mental models played in her learning process (and which models Annie liked to lean on the most in a high stakes game)
- The power of surrounding yourself with people that can help you expand your circle of competence — and how that made all the difference in Annie’s development as a player
- Confirmatory and exploratory thought, and how one helps us to be “accurate” and one helps us to be “right.”
- The secret pact you should be making with the people who are closest to you
And so much more.
This episode is just under two hours long, but there’s no fat in it. Annie delivers a masterclass in making the smartest decisions we can, even when our hubris insists otherwise. Do some finger stretches before hitting play, because you’re going to be taking some serious notes.
Please enjoy the interview!
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