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"Disparate Impact" with Heather Mac Donald

The Genius of Thomas Sowell

CHAPTER

The Importance of Probability Theory in the Real World

People on opposite sides of many issues may both assume a background level of probabilities that is not realistic. Neither logic nor empirical evidence provides a compelling reason for expecting either equal or random outcomes among individuals, groups, institutions, or nations. When used with an awareness of their pitfalls, statistics can be enormously valuable in testing competing hypotheses about disparate outcomes. But statistics may nevertheless be grossly misleading when they are distorted by errors of omission or errors of commission.

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