A three point shot means that you get three points, rather than two, for a shot that's beyond a certain dis. The idea is that if you make a shot from way out there, it's worth 50 % more points than another shot. So maybe what optimists are doing are not misreading the odds, but they're creating the odds that they want. There may be times in life when it seems like the long shot is verly optimistic, when in reality, it is the more rational option. But i do think sometimes in the romance of doing long shots at you can overlook those more safe paths that are just better.