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A Failure, but Not of Prediction

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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I worry that the people who refused to worry about coronavirus until too late thought they were being careful and avoiding overconfidence. Experts should think along these lines when making their recommendations, but if they don't, the press should consider them as part of its work putting expert recommendations in context. I'm singling out Kelsey because of the personal connection I met her through the same probabilistic reasoning forum where I did my cryonics survey years ago. Maybe other people got this right too. It would have looked like we're not sure how this will develop so you should definitely stop large gatherings.

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