Show Us Your Portfolio: Cem Karsan
Excess Returns
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The Importance of Having a Secular Trend
If you got that secular trend right from 1982 to 2022 for 40 years, you are inornantly wealthy. It doesn't mean you're not going to get 30% drawdowns to that thesis or problems along the way. The best outcome is getting the secular trend right and being able to play around it based on what's happening underneath the hood with positioning and at market structure. But if you had conviction in that long term, thesis that interest rates are going down and that equity multiples are going up...you have made a tremendous amount of money.
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