BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans
Forward Guidance
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Recession Predictions and Risk Analysis
The chapter examines the inaccuracies in predicting the 2023 recession and emphasizes the complexity of considering different types of recession risks. It discusses the factors that contributed to the false alarm in 2022 and 2023, including the booming labor market and policy actions. The conversation underscores the significance of looking beyond quantitative indicators during economic uncertainty and the importance of narratives in understanding recovery prospects.
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