The Timeless Nature of Human Behavior and Predictive Challenges

This chapter delves into the theme of consistency in human behavior, illustrated through Warren Buffett's anecdote about a candy bar. The discussion emphasizes the value of recognizing enduring principles over fleeting changes when making predictions in finance and politics.

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Brought to you by Cometeer delicious hyper-fresh, flash-frozen coffee; Momentous high-quality supplements; and LinkedIn Jobs recruitment platform with 900M+ users.

Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) is a partner at The Collaborative Fund. His book The Psychology of Money has sold more than three million copies and has been translated into 53 languages.

He is a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers and winner of the New York Times Sidney Award. In 2022, MarketWatch named him one of the 50 most influential people in markets. He serves on the board of directors at Markel.

Morgan’s new book is Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. You can find my first, widely popular interview with Morgan at tim.blog/morganhousel.

Please enjoy!

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[07:20] Buffett’s Snickers.

[12:21] What prompted Morgan to write Same As Ever?

[17:44] Morgan’s worst advice for aspiring writers is what works for him.

[21:48] The upsides of being rich and anonymous.

[26:35] Tips for raising unspoiled kids.

[33:19] Should families avoid passing along dynastic wealth?

[35:45] Finding worthy charities and causes.

[41:02] Money and happiness.

[48:37] Avalanches and other random, life-changing flukes.

[54:32] We can prepare for the future, but we can’t predict it.

[1:00:58] What current unknowns will seem shockingly obvious in a year?

[1:03:22] Which of our current views would change if our incentives were different?