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What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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The Graf Is a Much Bigger Deal Than Murder, but Much More Common

The spike in murders clearly happen in may not march. On a city by city level, it's hard to tell because murders are so rare. But when we look at other crimes that probably correlate with the murder rate, they clearly go up in may not marches. The protests caused police to do less policing in predominantly black areas. Police felt angry and disrespected after the protests and decided police less in order to show everybody how much they needed them. This could be because of any of police interpreted the protest as a demand for less policing and complied. I don't want to speculate on which of these factors was most decisive,. Only to say that one of them must be true, and that the

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