The Importance of Thinking Probabilistically

The future is not one thing, it's a distribution of potential outcomes all with different probabilities. Annie Duke lays out the logic of that sort of thinking growing directly out of her experience as a championship poker player in her book Thinking in Bets. Sometimes you'll place a smart bet that turns out badly; don't feel bad for having made a mistake. You can feel sorry for yourself that you got unlucky, but you shouldn't feel stupid for making a mistake.