The Reflexive Aspect of Prediction Markets

I'm not as excited about prediction markets as I was before and markets in general as tools for collective sense making because of this whole reflexive aspect. What Robin imagines is that there could be a world where, you know, in cryptopia, where we bet on who's going to be the best mayor of the town. And maybe we bet based on a very simple gray. We say,Who's going to reduce crime the most? Yes. In fact, it can be more nefarious than that. The mayor could potentially hire some people to go and like break a bunch of windows. There are actually all these adverse incentives that can exist in that environment. This is what worries me about

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