If you estimate for each one of these studies that have been done, what are the chances that they would have found that effect? They would have found a statistically significant signal if the effect was what is suggested by the largest studies. Their median chance would be 8.5%. So 50% of the studies would have 8.5% chances or less to be able to detect that signal which is amazing. I mean, if you think of that, these studies are depressing actually. iReport.com: Are minimum wages worth more than $1 an hour in your state and region?
John Ioannidis of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his research on the reliability of published research findings. They discuss Ioannidis's recent study on bias in economics research, meta-analysis, the challenge of small sample analysis, and the reliability of statistical significance as a measure of success in empirical research.