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The Commitment Problem
There was no way for Saddam to incredibly commit that he wouldn't build nuclear weapons. There's an old Iraqi saying, which is if you think your enemies can eat you for dinner, you have to eat them for lunch. A preemptive war against Iraq would be a terrible mistake. We can only sleepwalk into war when I think the strategic fundamentals have narrowed our options for a peaceful deal to something that's like a sliver.