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Predicting the Future ft. Stephen Grugett
The New Liberal Podcast
Prediction Market
A prediction market is a place where you can bet on the outcome of an event. The price that they're willing to pay for these shares basically corresponds to the probability of that event happening. So if I'm paying 50 cents a share, then that means that I think that the true odds about becoming president are 50% or greater. Do we think this actually works? Because we see this can work for obviously stock prices and things of that nature like economic markets. But why would we think that this works for other types of things that are not economics?
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