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Mid-Year Outlook: What’s next for the US economy, inflation, and the Fed?

The View From Apollo

CHAPTER

The Natural Rate of Interest in the Western World Appears to Have Shifted Up

De-globalization, energy transition and less immigration are likely reasons why we should expect to see some more upward pressure on the cost of capital. And that's not only here in the near term, but that's certainly also something when we think about it over the next three to five years. The cyclical reason, of course, is that inflation is still too high.

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