Michael Mauboussin - Man + Machine, Moats, and Power of the Outside View - [Invest Like the Best, EP.37]
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
The Inside, Outside View of the Base Rate Forecast
Analyst says regression toward the mean is a subtle and tricky concept. If you understand this inside outside view, oud can give you among the best sets of tools for thinking about not only the fact that regression happens, but the rate at which it happens. When i rejoined a credit swis, we stepped back and set arit an i put on my white board, like base rate book. We have net have incredible resources with our wholt to data base, where these has been methodically compiled including dead companies from 19 50. Really nice work. So going through measures including sales growth, where the amazon numbers come from, allows us to do correlation work that allows us to
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