Scenario analysis and asset-level strategy

Host Ed Crooks talks to Jason Liu, Chief Executive of Wood Mackenzie and co-author (with Chief Analyst Simon Flowers) of a new book, Connected, about the fast-changing world of energy. They are also joined by Sunaina Ocalan, formerly Senior Director for Corporate Strategy & Climate at the oil and gas company Hess, now Senior Analyst and Co-Head for Americas Energy & Transition at Bernstein Research. Together, they explore how energy leaders can plan, invest and operate operate in a world where different sectors, technologies and geographies are interconnected in more powerful and complex ways than ever before.

They talk about the language of “the energy transition”, and whether it can lead to misconceptions. Global demand for hydrocarbons is still growing, and they will continue to play a critical role in our energy system for decades to come, even as new supply from renewables and other low-carbon sources surges higher. A wider appreciation of that reality is driving a shift from siloed thinking about individual sectors to integrated solutions. For example, companies are increasingly looking at pairing solar and storage with gas generation to meet demand from data centers for reliable low-carbon power.

Sunaina takes us inside the the thinking of energy leaders as they assess strategies and investment decisions. She sets out a practical approach to scenario analysis, with “exit ramps” so companies can pivot as facts change. The aim isn’t to predict one future, but to be ready for a range of possible outcomes. That means balancing the advantages and disadvantages of a wide range of technologies, and taking a strategic view through short-term fluctuations as far as possible. 

Effective decision-making is impossible without reliable data. Jason warns about three traps: using too little real data, leaning on synthetic/modelled data without ground truth, and poor integration across different sectors. Data collection technology is advancing rapidly, and with sensors, satellites and market intelligence, decision-makers can increasingly see what’s really happening with precision and granular detail, often in real time.

Then there’s AI. Like other industries, the world of energy is being transformed by the tools that have become available over the past few years. Scenario runs have been cut from months to minutes, with hundreds of models combined to give a comprehensive coherent picture. AI tools can even assess the best models to use on particular data sets: a capability Jason calls hyper-modelling. And still there is a vital role for human intelligence and judgement, to find and interpret the information that the AI tools miss. 

The challenges in the energy sector today are vast. It is a cliche to say that uncertainty is higher than ever, but today it genuinely seems true. The pace of innovation in AI is changing the world in ways that have never been seen before. But the opportunity is vast, too. The energy industry will need $75 trillion or more in investment over the next 25 years, to meet ever-growing demand while reducing the impact on the environment. The businesses that succeed in making the most of this opportunity will be the ones that get three things right: the right data, the right AI capabilities, and the right people, all brought together to deliver actionable insights. 

Download the book (free): Connected: Bringing predictability to the increasingly uncertain world of energy.

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