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Introduction
Naseem Nicholas-Taulib: The narrative fallacy creates a perfectly logical world in our minds where fate is nonexistent. We are quick to offer cause and effect explanations when extreme events occur, he says. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events, Naseem writes.
Show notes / Free audiobook / PDF & Infographic / Have you ever made a comprehensive plan, but it failed anyway? Do you find yourself in extreme positive or negative situations and fail to make the best choice?
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Disclaimer: This is an unofficial summary and analysis.
Have you ever made a comprehensive plan, but it failed anyway? Do you find yourself in extreme positive or negative situations and fail to make the best choice?
Well, you are not alone. Better still, you are in good company. Even plans made with endless resources can fail. Governments cannot address problems such as unemployment and war. They also cannot seize opportunities by misallocating public resources.
Better planning will enable you to capitalize on opportunities. Preparedness will allow you to cut losses when disasters strike. How do you prepare for unexpected life events? Can you improve the success rate of your plans?
The Black Swan is based on the premise that life is full of surprises. Some are good, and some are catastrophic. The book reviews events such as the rise of the Internet and devastating wars. It also studies our tendency to offer explanations when confronted with significant events.
The book offers insight into the nature of unexpected events. It also looks at typical human reactions. Finally, it provides tips on managing life's extremes better.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese American author. He is also a statistician, risk analyst, and former options trader. The Black Swan is one of the five-volume philosophical essays, Incerto. He published Incerto between 2001 and 2018. Taleb teaches risk engineering at the NYU Tandon School of Engineering and is a Risk and Decision Analysis journal co-editor. In addition, the remarkable statistician has authored over a dozen inspiring books.
Taleb’s approach to risk management saw him profit from contemporary financial crises. He advocates for a black swan approach to financial markets that caters to hard-to-predict events in decision-making. Taleb also advocates for decentralized scientific research and aims to overcome gaps in current studies.
Nassim Taleb authored four other books in Incerto. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb’s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. It has led The Black Swan to win several awards.
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