Market Uncertainty and Global Correlations in a Risk-Off Climate

In this episode, Nik recaps one of the most eventful few days for financial markets this decade. With the soft landing narrative quickly giving way to a recession after last week's employment data, global markets went into a full tailspin, with US Treasuries dramatically bull steepening, stocks crashing, and bitcoin dipping below $50,000. He analyzes recent economic releases, discusses the volatility event and unwind of the Japanese yen carry trade, and carefully breaks down the price action from Tuesday's sharp, albeit partial, recovery. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Efani, America's most secure mobile service. Efani delivers premium mobile service with unparalleled protection against SIM swaps and privacy invasions. Safeguard your crypto assets and personal data with the industry's most advanced security measures. Protect Yourself Now. If you value your privacy and security, Efani Secure Mobile is the answer. Don’t wait until it’s too late, protect yourself today. Use code TBL at checkout for $99 off the Efani SAFE Plan. https://www.efani.com/tbl?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. It’s estimated that ~30% of Bitcoin is lost forever. Poor seed phrase security is a big reason why. This is why we use Stamp Seed, Heat-resistant to 3,000ºF, rust-proof, crush-proof, and time-proof, Compact and easy to hide, No loose parts, such as screws or letter tiles. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 855719 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #JoeConsorti #FinancialMarkets #RecessionFears #USTreasuries #StockMarketCrash #Bitcoin #EconomicAnalysis #Volatility #YenCarryTrade #MarketRecap #SoftLanding #GlobalEconomy #MarketVolatility #Investing #EconomicOutlook #MarketCrash #Forex #MarketTrends #BondMarket #Trading #FinanceNews #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Market #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice. Chapters: 00:00:00 - A Shocking Week in Financial Markets 00:05:11 - The Pain of Rate Cuts and Economic Disruptions 00:10:02 - Economic Backdrop: Headlines and Unemployment Claims 00:15:05 - Implications of a Bad Recession and Rate Cuts 00:20:24 - The Impact of Treasury Repo Investments 00:25:15 - Bitcoin Price Analysis 00:30:05 - The Response of the Investment Universe 00:34:57 - Yields Breaking Down 00:39:45 - The Unwinding of the Carry Trade

Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise