The Paradox of Random Events

A lightning strike every day means there's a 3% chance that the next strike will be tomorrow. The paradoxical result is that if the process is totally random, tomorrow is the most likely day. A lot of people fall prey to an illusion that random events have some pattern to them. War is a Poisson process, just like the rats in the box,. Even if they're randomly timed, it's going to seem like they come in clusters unless there is some non-random process that spaces them out.