The Yen Carry Trade Unraveled

Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt to discuss the current economic landscape, focusing on the potential collapse of debt markets and the rise of alternative assets like gold, silver, and platinum. He argues that we are witnessing the end of a 40-year bond market cycle, with long-term debt instruments experiencing significant yield increases across multiple countries, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Hunt emphasizes that the traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds are losing their appeal due to capital devaluation and low yields. He suggests that investors are increasingly turning to precious metals as a preservation of capital strategy. Technical analysis of gold, platinum, and silver charts indicates potential breakouts and continued upward momentum, with gold potentially reaching targets around $3,700.

A key discussion point is the unraveling of the Japanese carry trade, where low-cost Japanese funding has been used to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. As Japanese long-term yields rise, this trade becomes less attractive, potentially causing significant financial disruption. Hunt believes this could trigger a broader financial restructuring. The conversation also explores the potential vulnerability of the United States as a global economic hegemon. Hunt argues that the U.S. is not immune to economic challenges and may experience a more dramatic economic downturn due to its higher starting point.

He warns about the potential collapse of pension systems, driven by complex financial instruments like Leveraged Debt Instruments (LDIs) that have created unsustainable financial structures. Ultimately, Hunt predicts a shift towards alternative assets and potentially a universal basic income (UBI) system as traditional financial mechanisms break down. He advises investors to focus on physical precious metals and be cautious of complex financial products and large asset management firms.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:49 – Debt Markets & Equities
00:03:52 – Demand Destroying Event
00:07:04 – 10 Year – Bond Yield Chart
00:10:50 – TLT ETF Chart
00:13:12 – Can the Fed Save Markets?
00:17:10 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind
00:24:00 – Dollar Still A Safe Haven?
00:30:15 – Gold Attracting Attention
00:34:10 – Plat & Silver Performance
00:36:40 – Miners & Margin Expansion
00:39:37 – Questioning Yourself
00:48:00 – Pensions & Debt Collapse
00:56:00 – Wrap Up

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/themarketsniper
X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper

Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.