GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins
Top Traders Unplugged
Exploring the Inflation Target and Central Bank Mindset
Discussion on the determination of central banks' 2% inflation target and concerns about inflation reaching higher levels. Exploring the mindset of central bankers and the challenges of changing the target.
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins
07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?
12:27 - Where are we now?
17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?
23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?
26:37 - A sticky inflation
28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?
32:52 - A concern for real-estate?
38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?
46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?
51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?
59:11 - The outlook for asset allocation and currencies
01:03:42 - Thanks for listening
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