Actuarial starting points: inflation and bond yields

Joe recommends beginning with inflation and long-term bond rates to set return assumptions.

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Episode notes

Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions.

(0:01:03) Braden on the panel's value for planners and DIY investors.

(0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden.

(0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction.

(0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity.

(0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes.

(0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions.

(0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour.

(0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling.

(0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation.

(0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs.