Is the Eurozone heading toward a new credit crisis? In this first part, Arno Wellens points on the structural fragilities inside the eurozone that are pushing Europe toward another systemic crisis.
We discuss why France and Italy are trapped in a debt spiral, how the ECB is forced to repress interest rates despite persistent inflation, and why financial markets are starting to price sovereign risk again, even as central banks intervene.
At the core of the problem lies a dangerous combination of:
• Chronic budget deficits
• Demographic collapse and unfunded pension liabilities
• Artificially suppressed bond spreads
• An ECB running out of effective policy tools
As interest rates fall but bond yields refuse to cooperate, the credibility of monetary policy itself is coming into question. The result is growing capital flight, rising political tension inside the eurozone, and a narrowing set of options for policymakers.
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