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Thomas Thornton: This Bear Market Isn't Over Yet

The Macro Trading Floor

CHAPTER

Is the Bond Market Pricing the Recession?

In the second half of 2023, we have meager 50 bases point of cuts being priced in. That's not a cutting cycle. It is consistent with the recession. And one thing I would like to add on this yield curve, an inversion of more than 100 bases points between the two's and the 10's. We've only seen that couple of times over the past five decades. But what happens subsequently after the recession inversion was that the industrial cycle actually kicked back quite materially. So I think that is the crossroads that we are standing at when it comes to equities.

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