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Survivorship Bias, Base Rates, and Librarians

Idea to Startup

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How to Build an Engaged, Trusted Audience

James Clear is the author of Atomic Habits, a New York Times best selling book which became a bestseller because he wrote a newsletter for nearly a decade. The same story is echoed by authors, direct to consumer brands, angel investors and even founders of B2B SaaS products. They build an audience through consistently showing up for years with a newsletter or a podcast. Then they capitalized on that audience with a product that took off because of all of that built in evangelist trust. This is survivorship bias. Lots of people running successful businesses in 2021 started doing this strategy in 2013 and it was a huge reason for their success.

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