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Are There Any Estimates of Existential Risks From AI?
A 2021 survey of 44 researchers working on reducing existential risks from AI found the median risk estimate was 32.5%. The highest answer given was 98%, and the lowest was 2%. There's clearly significant uncertainty about how big this risk is, and huge variation in answers. We think one of the most important things you can do would be to help reduce the gravest risks that AI poses. This isn't just because we think these risks are high; it's also because there are real things we can do to reduce them.