Speaker 2
Well, maybe it was... Yeah, who knows? Yeah, because it doesn't. Because it's got to be basically the equivalent of cash on hand, isn't it? That definition I gave, which is like within one... Strangely within one year, it should really be within one day, shouldn't it? Or within one hour. But anyway, which is what was needed. But I mean, you can't tell me, first of all, that they didn't know what was happening. And secondly, in a bigger bank where they did have to follow the letter of the law, they would know the value of the market value of all their assets as they currently stand. So they would know if they were trading in solvent. But again, it's a question of... So this thing couldn't happen to a bigger bank because they would know this. Well, it did happen to a bigger bank back in 2008.
Speaker 1
You know, mainly the merchant banks that got it. Right, because they got the value of the assets wrong, because they were... Well, they were inflating the assets. They don't realize a positive feedback loop between increasing levels of credit used to buy stocks and
Speaker 2
bonds. Yeah. And the value of the bonds themselves. But they were mortgage bank securities, weren't they? The ticket. Which were the dead values of the mortgages, whereas you know what the value of government bonds is. Yeah, yeah. So you'd have a more accurate read of where your current situation is.
Speaker 1
But then again, as you buy them, you just get to the stage where your balance sheet is infected by government bonds, which shouldn't
Speaker 2
be an infection at all. That's the way they got turned into a... No, it's basically the safest thing ever, isn't it? Yeah. So guess the closing question is, what happens out of all of this? Because it seems like now, bonds are as volatile as shares, you know, the lowest risk financial instrument you can invest in is now just as risky as investing in the share market. And as we've said earlier, bought about by the actions of central banks.
Speaker 1
And they're fighting inflation with a tool that doesn't fight inflation. Yeah. Again, I've recommended I'm another one of my colleagues, Blair Fix, for his posts on how inflation can drive interest rates up or down. But interest rates don't affect inflation. It's the causal mechanism goes in the opposite direction to what the neoclassical models are.