Trump and the 80-Year Cycle of Change

Is America screwed? Not according to the former managing editor of Wired, Peter Leyden. The creator of the Substack newsletter The Great Progression, Leyden believes that U.S. history operates in 80 year cycles and that America, empowered by Northern Californian technology, is gearing up for another remarkable period of innovation. Leyden is no MAGA fanboy, but argues that Trump is enabling the American future by destroying the Republican brand and unintentionally guaranteeing a longterm Democratic majority. It’s a provocative thesis which I hope is true. But what about China? And can we really trust Silicon Valley’s tech titans to make America great again?

5 Takeaways

* Leyden believes America cycles through major reinventions approximately every 80 years, with previous transformations occurring after the Constitutional Convention, Civil War, and World War II.

* He argues that post-WWII systems (welfare state, Pax Americana) are outdated and that Trump's presidency is accelerating their necessary dismantling.

* Leyden sees an opportunity for progressives to rebuild American systems using AI, clean energy and bioengineering in more efficient, effective ways.

* Leyden references economic historian Carlota Perez's theory that technological revolutions move from "Gilded Ages" (concentrated wealth/power) to "Golden Ages" (distributed benefits) through democratic intervention.

* Leyden positions the US-China competition, particularly in AI development, as a fundamental contest between democratic and authoritarian approaches to organizing society with new technologies.

Peter Leyden is a tech expert and thought leader on artificial intelligence, climate technologies and a more positive future through his keynote speaking, writing and advising. Leyden currently is the creator of The Great Progression: 2025 to 2050, which is a series of keynote talks, Substack essays, and his next book on our new potential to harness AI and other transformative technologies to create a much better world. He also is the founder of Reinvent Futures, advising senior leaders in strategic foresight and the impacts of these new technologies. Since coming to San Francisco to work with the founders of WIRED to start​​ The Digital Age, he has followed the front edge of technological change and built an extraordinary network of pioneering innovators in Silicon Valley. Leyden most recently convened this network of elite tech experts through the first two years of the Generative AI Revolution as host and curator of one of the premier event series at ground zero in San Francisco — The AI Age Begins. Leyden is the former Managing Editor of WIRED, who then became the Founder and CEO of two startups that pioneered the early video mediums of first YouTube and then Zoom. He wrote two influential books on the future that went into multiple languages, including The Long Boom that foretold how the new digital economy would scale over 25 years — and largely did. Leyden began his career as a journalist covering America, then did a stint as a foreign correspondent in Asia for Newsweek, including covering the early rise of China. He has traveled to more than 50 countries around the world. He was raised in the heartland in Minnesota, graduated summa cum laude at Georgetown University, and earned two masters degrees from Columbia University.

Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.

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