The Fourth Edition of Stenos Signals

The recession is sadly still likely to hit the US economy, probably by early Q three at the latest. We will see levels below 50 in the ISM service sector over the course of the spring. And that is ultimately what is called a contraction or a recession. I'm still very firm that we will get that liquidity injection from the US treasury in February and March. But according to the Chris Waller rule from the FMC, we should expect liquidity to dwindle into the autumn.