Can You Expect a Four % Stock Market Return?

A lot of people, including myself, have been concerned for a while with low interest rates and high stock market valuations. Now inflation's picking up as well, i think that's what probably changed his outlook to now be comfortable sane. I'm now concerned that maybe the historical data is not providing the full story about what the four % rule can do. Is it better for people to be more flexible in their discretionary ding and how much they spend?