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Peter Minor, Carbon180 & Jack Andreasen, Breakthrough Energy

Inevitable

CHAPTER

Is Discounting a Good Way to Reduce Uncertainty?

There's a real risk that if we try to found things like uncertainty or don't bound uncertainty well enough, we don't create the right mechanisms for dealing with that kind of risk. That what happens is you get a proliferation of methods that are just not as effective don't have the right climate impacts but they've optimized on that sort of discounting costs ratio. So higher uncertainty will have much bigger error bars and smaller uncertainty. And so there probably are frameworks where something like discounting can work as a way for us to deal with more open systems. But there may be some cases where that's just not going to be reasonable or feasible.

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