Is There Wisdom in Estimating Probabilities by Outcomes?

There is wisdom to be had in mentally multiplying probabilities by outcomes. How many people have ruined their lives by taking a gamble with a large at a small gain and a small chance at a catastrophic loss? If you don't have a good explanation, something like cutting corners or having a meaningless fling, risking your relationship, well, these are bad explanations. After all, you'r choosing short term an over long term prosperity. It's a bad idea. That would be worth looking into. Some doctors would probably have very different statistics to other doctors. And let me pick it up in the final paragraph, where pinker says, even when exact numbers are unavailable. The way to think about