In this episode of Galaxy Brain, Charlie Warzel explores the burgeoning industry of prediction markets. These platforms let people wager on everything from elections and award shows to the most trivial internet ephemera, framing bets as tradable “shares” that rise and fall like stocks. With billions in weekly trading volume, massive new funding rounds, and even a CNN partnership with the prediction-betting platform, Kalshi, prediction markets are quickly moving from a niche curiosity to a mainstream-media fixture—openly touting ambitions to financialize everything.
Warzel is joined by writer Max Read, who argues that prediction markets sit at the intersection of gambling, finance, and a broader “suckerification” economy aimed at young men. Together they unpack whether the markets actually reflect the “wisdom of crowds” or whether they’re little more than a meta-game of vibes, ideology, and misvalued dumb money. The pair explore the culture of these platforms and offer a diagnosis of the attention economy: When it’s hard to sell anything directly, it’s easier to sell derivatives of everything. Prediction markets may promise clarity, Warzel and Read suggest, but what they really offer is another way to feel excitement in a world that feels rigged.
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