4min chapter

The Joe Walker Podcast cover image

Radical Uncertainty - Mervyn King

The Joe Walker Podcast

CHAPTER

The Benefits of Quantifying Costs

Sometimes relatively small pieces of analysis can actually help you understand what's going on in a way that the black box model doesn't. Bob May was asked by the World Health Organization to go out to Southern Africa when AIDS took off and he could see that the one of the parameters in the model that was absolutely crucial was the average number of sexual contacts per person per year in a country. He looked at them and said you know this number is fundamental and don't you realize when you think about it if the answer to the averageNumber of sexual contacts is for example 100 per year it makes a hell of a difference whether it's 100 contacts with the same person or 100 contacts with 100 different people.

00:00

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode