Expectations for a Hollow US–China Deal

Sanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion

(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions

(02:02) - Ukraine Conflict and Ceasefire Prospects

(06:03) - European Energy Dependence on Russia

(11:36) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals

(26:55) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(40:39) - The Limits of Military Power

(41:10) - China's Economic Leverage

(41:39) - The Trade War Dynamics

(42:26) - China's Manufacturing Dependency

(43:19) - The Challenge of Decoupling

(44:17) - China's Consumer Market Issues

(46:32) - The Future of US-China Relations

(52:42) - The Role of Semiconductors

(57:39) - The Reality of Trade Deals

(01:02:23) - Geopolitical Strategies and Misunderstandings

(01:05:25) - US Military Posturing in Venezuela

(01:15:34) - Trump's Military Strategy and Liberal Media Critique

(01:16:46) - Venezuela and Regime Change

(01:18:13) - North Korea and Trump's Near Miss

(01:19:22) - Maduro's Offer and US Interests

(01:28:11) - China's Role and Global Energy Politics

(01:38:03) - NBA Scandals and Player Dynamics

(01:47:47) - Baseball Playoffs and Personal Anecdotes

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro